Introduction:
Over the past few decades, it has become clear that the balance of power and influence between regions is fluctuating. For around a century, the United States could be labeled a unipolar power in the world, nearing hegemony. However, since the turn of the 21st century, other regions and states have risen to the occasion and are on the verge, if not already, competing with America and North America as a whole. Two such regions are that of East Asia and South Asia.
East Asia has seen financial miracles from the likes of South Korea and Japan, but the most significant development has been that of China. China has been able to pull off one of the most miraculous turnarounds in human history, as they come off their “century of humiliation” as the second largest GDP in the world, one of the greatest military powers in the world, and overall one of the most powerful and influential states in the world. Their economic and political prowess has launched them to the top of the international world order, and has allowed them to determine their future, as well as the future of other states and regions.
Another area that has been able to make a miraculous rise to international acclaim is that of South Asia. Although countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are still not in the best economic and political conditions, the history of violence and exploitation in the region has not stopped either Pakistan or India from becoming heavy hitters on the world stage. India has become one of the fastest growing economies in the world and has even been lobbying for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, a distinction reserved for the most powerful states in the world. Pakistan on the other hand has proven its political and military prowess through its acquisition of nuclear arms and close linkage to both the United States and China. Both of these states have been able to outgrow their colonial histories to the extent that they command attention from the international community as quickly developing states who may very soon become some of the most powerful in the world, as they have already shown that they are dominant in their region.
The relationships between these three specific states are also of great importance today for a host of reasons. From an economic standpoint, China and India seem to be rivals, with Pakistan aiding the Chinese through a strong partnership. The Chinese belt and road initiative has built on an already strong partnership between Pakistan and China, as China is now investing a large amount of money into Pakistani infrastructure in order to gain access to the Arabian sea (Scott, 2008).
There is also a political and military relationship between all three countries. It is quite clear that India and Pakistan are at odds with each other regarding borders and the fundamental existence of one another, but China is also at odds with India currently in regards to the Ladakh border. This has resulted into both recent and historic conflicts on the Line of Actual control in Kashmir and Ladakh between India and Pakistan/China. It can thus be seen that China and Pakistan’s relationship is an “all-weather” relationship spanning more than just economics, but even into defense. The future relationship between all these states in all aspects is an important development to watch in the coming centuries, not only for the stability of each state, but of the entire international system as their clashes on political, economic, and military fronts may spell doom for both regions and ideologies. This is shown by the recent border clashes between India and China on the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh in the past month, where dozens of Chinese and Indian army members were killed. In order to understand and avoid the potential conflicts that may arise between these regions, their historical and current relationships must be analyzed.
Historical Backgrounds
The relationship between these regions can historically be linked back to the ancient trade routes associated with the Silk Road. The Silk Road was an ancient network of trade routes that stretched between China and Europe, with the main commodities being Chinese made silk, porcelain, and tea. The Silk Road was first believed to be started in 130 BCE and ended in 1453 CE when the Ottoman Empire choked off trade to Europe, subsequently causing the age of exploration ("Silk Road | Facts, History, & Map", 2020). What is usually left out in the history of the Silk Road is just how intertwined South Asia and East Asia were throughout the use of the trade routes. Modern day India, China, and Pakistan were not documented as trading many commodities along the silk road, however, they traded culture and ideas. Ideologies such as Brahmanism were spread throughout the region and influenced the creation of new ideas and religions such as Zoroastrianism (Behera, 2002). The most famous ideologies to be exchanged between these regions were Islam and Buddhism. Islam originated in what can now be considered the Middle East, but eventually made its way to modern day Pakistan and India through the silk road. Traders in these regions then brought it to China, just as Indian traders brought the Indian originated religion of Buddhism to China (Behera, 2002). This impact has been so strong, that India, Pakistan, and China are some of the most populous Muslim and Buddhist states in the world, with even China having upwards of 60 million Muslims.
However, unfortunately the relationship between all these states was not always amiable, as there is also a history of violence between these states in their more recent histories. India and Pakistan were founded one day apart from each other in 1947, while the modern Chinese state was founded in 1949. Unfortunately, due to the colonial experiences of all these states, especially India and Pakistan, borders were an issue, which led to the Kashmir border conflict. India and Pakistan fought each other over the Kashmir valley three times: 1947, 1965, and a brief war in 1999 (Cohen, 2002). India and China have also fought a war with each other over the borders concerning this region in 1962, ending in a Chinese victory. These wars were fought for ideological reasons, as well as economic reasons, as Kashmir holds natural resources, such as freshwater, that have become increasingly necessary for all three states. The Sino-Indian war of 1962 would go on to mark decades of rivalry between the two states, as well as a strong partnership between Pakistan and China as they were able to peacefully negotiate their borders in 1963.
Current Economic Connections:
Both East Asia and South Asia are rising economic powerhouses, with East Asia possibly being one of the most prosperous regions in the world. South Asia on the other hand is one of the most quickly developing economic regions in the world and is steadily transitioning into an industrial economy while East Asia is attempting a transition to a post-industrial economy in the coming decades. Central to both of these regions economic development are the economic developments of China, India, and Pakistan. China has managed to become the second largest economy in the world, and possibly the center of the global supply chain, as they are practically the main assembly line for all major world products, with South Asia rapidly expanding their assembly capabilities as well. With this also comes the issue of exploited workers and horrible environmental issues, however, these regions are slowly starting to focus on these issues.
The economic relationship between the states of China, India, and Pakistan are all extremely important, as China and India are two of the world’s largest economies and Pakistan has access to markets that are not immediately accessible to China, such as the Arabian sea. They have also been increasingly important as China and India have become rivals, with Pakistan lining up alongside Pakistan.
India and China’s economic rivalry focuses mainly on the fact that regional economic domination typically results in a seat at the table with other world powers, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, etc. This leads to a greater amplification of the ideals that each state wants to promote, therefore, in order to achieve influence in the world order, states must first achieve regional economic dominance. As both India and China hope to be world powers, a rivalry has arisen between the two states, originating in the 1962 war. Since then, both states have attempted to increase their share of the global economy through two separate systems. India has attempted to match the strategy of the United States and the United kingdom with a capitalist, deregulated, democratic economic system, whereas the Chinese aim to reimagine the Soviet Union’s socialist system with a technocratic and capitalist twist. The results have shown that China has nearly doubled the rates at which India has grown, but India claims that their growth is more dependable and durable in the long run, hoping for long term western investment. The most heated economic rivalry between the two has come from the oil market, as China and India both are industrial states with growing needs for oil, however, China has been able to outbid India in almost all cases, frustrating India’s government (Scott, 2008). Nonetheless, a number of trade deals have been signed between the two nations, most likely because the Chinese have dominated India economically in recent years. However, neither state is satisfied with their progress and aims to outdo the other whenever possible in order to gain more influence in the region and subsequently the international order, which leads to China and Pakistan’s relationship.
Military/Political Relationships:
India and Pakistan have not been the most peaceful of neighbors, as evident through their numerous wars. China aims to capitalize on this relationship by working closely with Pakistan in order to access markets that are typically dominated by India through the Arabian sea (Scott, 2008). As China aims to enter this market without any physical access to the Arabian sea, it has invested heavily in Pakistan through both infrastructure and finance to gain access through the Belt and Road initiative (Scott, 2008). The access to the Arabian Sea means a much more stable and secure access to Middle Eastern oil and energy supplies, which allows China to keep expanding their industrial economy and potentially phase out to a post-industrial economy sooner (Scott, 2008). In order to do this, China has invested heavily into Pakistan and signed trade contracts worth a total of $150.8 Billion in 2015 alone. China also has invested around $45 billion in Pakistani infrastructure, with more expected to be signed in the coming years (Chung, 2017). These investments are meant to create both physical roads and oil pipelines, as well as expand the Pakistani electrical grid. This investment comes at the cost of threatening tensions between China and India, as the Pakistani-Indian rivalry seems to be a zero-sum game in all aspects.
This zero-sum game eventually can lead to political and military conflict, as India and Pakistan have only shown signs of worsening their relationship in recent months and years. The election of Prime Minister Modi and his seemingly anti-Pakistan rhetoric has not helped the relationship between the two states, nor the relationship between India and China, as China and Pakistan are military allies. This ally ship comes at the cost of the deep-sea port that China plans to build off the Persian Gulf for oil purposes, thus China provides arms and financial support to the Pakistani military. This is counterintuitive to their claims of peaceful relationships with India, as Pakistan is known to utilize these military investments in the Kashmir region through militant groups (Chung, 2019).
The animosity from the Kashmiri issue runs so deep between India and Pakistan that each nation has been proven to hold nuclear armaments to deter conflict escalation in the future. However, a potential conflict between India and Pakistan cannot occur without severe Chinese intervention as a Pakistani ally. Chinese investments in Pakistan are too valuable for China to risk India destroying them, especially their energy resource supply lines, thus China has continuously supported the Pakistani army, even on the nuclear front. China has an estimated 290 nuclear warheads and India has an estimated stockpile of 140 warheads. Both these states could afford their nuclear programs due to their economic dominance, however Pakistan also has a nuclear capacity of around 150 nuclear warheads. These Pakistani nuclear warheads have been shown to use Chinese materials and thus Chinese nuclear deterrence through Pakistani funding would not be out of the question if a large-scale conflict were to occur between India and Pakistan (Nair, 2002). The increased infrastructure between China and Pakistan could be used as collateral for Pakistan, who may threaten to stop its usage in order to gain further military support from China. With the recent skirmishes between China and India this past month, as well as the increasingly frequent skirmishes between India and Pakistan in regards to the Kashmiri Line of Control, these relationships must be analyzed in order to determine a de-escalation strategy.
Conclusion:
Nonetheless, the hopes for these regions are high and large-scale conflict is still not projected to occur anytime soon, even though recent events may contradict this statement. I project the relationship between China and India to get better over time as the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected each state’s economy and neither can risk starting a costly conflict with one another. Conflict also seems unlikely as all three states have spent decades building up strong economies and political capital, to risk destroying these gains before reaching the top of the international affairs ladder would be foolish for all states involved, even though each state acts as if they are willing to risk it all for nationalistic purposes.
With the current economic situation of the world, I also suspect that all three states will continue to build up trade partnerships and investment deals, especially Pakistan and China. In order to gain back the losses of the recent pandemic and capitalize on low oil prices, China will continue to expand its belt and road initiative in Pakistan as much as they can economically afford. In terms of the relationship between China and India, the best way to soothe the tensions after the recent border skirmish is to reaffirm each other economically, as this is the most important aspect to both countries’ governments and people. If these states are all able to economically and politically come together and develop stronger relationships, there is no doubt that their respective regions will also strengthen their relationships, as these are the most dominant forces in East Asia and South Asia economically, politically, and militarily.
References
Behera, S. (2002). India's Encounter with the Silk Road. Economic And Political Weekly, 37(51), 5077-5080.
Chung, C. (2017). What are the strategic and economic implications for South Asia of China's Maritime Silk Road initiative?. The Pacific Review, 31(3), 315-332. doi: 10.1080/09512748.2017.1375000
Chung, C. (2019). China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative: Strategic and Economic Implications for East Africa. China And The World, 02(02), 1950011. doi: 10.1142/s2591729319500111
Cohen, S. (2002). India, Pakistan and Kashmir. Journal Of Strategic Studies, 25(4), 32-60. doi: 10.1080/01402390412331302865
Nair, V. (2002). THE SINO-PAK BOMB?. Retrieved 28 June 2020, from https://jamestown.org/program/the-sino-pak-bomb/
Scott, D. (2008). The Great Power ‘Great Game’ between India and China: ‘The Logic of Geography’. Geopolitics, 13(1), 1-26. doi: 10.1080/14650040701783243
Silk Road | Facts, History, & Map. (2020). Retrieved 28 June 2020, from https://www.britannica.com/topic/Silk-Road-trade-route
Commenti